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<h1><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><a href="http://www.bis.org/author/enisse_kharroubi.htm"><span class=SpellE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Enisse</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> <span class=SpellE>Kharroubi</span></span></a></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> <span lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></span></span></h1> <p><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Bank for International Settlements<br> Monetary and Economic Department<br> Monetary Policy Division<br> Office T.08.034<br> <span class=SpellE>Centralbahnplatz</span> 2<br> CH-4051 Basel, Switzerland<br> phone: + 41 (0) 61 280 9250<br> email: enisse.kharroubi''at''bis.org <em>or</em> ekharroubi''at''gmail.com (at=@)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <div style='mso-element:para-border-div;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0cm 0cm 1.0pt 0cm'> <p style='border:none;mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0cm; mso-padding-alt:0cm 0cm 1.0pt 0cm'><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </div> <p style='margin-right:276.25pt;text-align:justify'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"/> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"/> </v:formulas> <v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t"/> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="Image_x0020_1" o:spid="_x0000_s1039" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="image00" style='position:absolute;left:0;text-align:left;margin-left:0; margin-top:0;width:104.5pt;height:124.8pt;z-index:1;visibility:visible; mso-wrap-style:square;mso-wrap-distance-left:9pt;mso-wrap-distance-top:0; mso-wrap-distance-right:9pt;mso-wrap-distance-bottom:0; mso-position-horizontal:left;mso-position-horizontal-relative:margin; mso-position-vertical:top;mso-position-vertical-relative:margin'> <v:imagedata src="index_fichiers/image003.jpg" o:title="image00"/> <w:wrap type="square" anchorx="margin" anchory="margin"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img width=139 height=166 src="index_fichiers/image001.jpg" align=left hspace=12 alt=image00 v:shapes="Image_x0020_1"><![endif]><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>I am currently Senior Economist in the Monetary Policy Division in the Monetary and Economic Department of the </span><a href="http://www.bis.org"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Bank for International Settlements</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'> which I joined in 2010. Prior to that, I served as an economist in the International Macroeconomics Division (International Affairs Department) at </span><a href="http://www.banque-france.fr/en"><span class=SpellE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Banque</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> de France</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> where I spent 7 years. I hold a Ph.D. in Economics from the </span><a href="http://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/en/"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Paris School of Economics</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> (PSE 2004).<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>My main areas of research are <em>Macroeconomics</em>, <em>Financial Economics</em> and <em>International Finance</em>.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <div style='mso-element:para-border-div;border:none;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-top-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:1.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'> <p style='border:none;mso-border-top-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0cm; mso-padding-alt:1.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </div> <h2><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><a href="macroeconomics.html"><span class=SpellE>Macroeconomics</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></h2> <h3><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Fiscal Policy<o:p></o:p></span></h3> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l8 level1 lfo1;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393213001621"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Cyclical Fiscal Policy, Credit Constraints, and Industry Growth.</span></a></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> </span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>joint <span class=SpellE>with</span> <em>Philippe <span class=SpellE>Aghion</span></em> and <em>David <span class=SpellE>Hemous</span></em><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: What are the effects of cyclical fiscal policy on industry growth? We show that industries with a relatively heavier reliance on external finance or lower asset tangibility tend to grow faster (in terms of both value added and of labor productivity growth) in countries that implement fiscal policies that are more countercyclical. We reach this conclusion using <span class=SpellE>Rajan</span> and <span class=SpellE>Zingales</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>s (1998) difference-in-difference methodology on a panel data sample of manufacturing industries across 15 OECD countries over the period 1980 2005.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h3><span class=SpellE><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Monetary</span></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> Policy<o:p></o:p></span></h3> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/infi.12040/abstract"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Monetary Policy in a Downturn: Are Financial Crises Special?</span></a></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> </span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>joint <span class=SpellE><em>Morten</em></span><em> <span class=SpellE>Bech</span></em> and <em>Leonardo <span class=SpellE>Gambacorta</span></em><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: This paper analyses the effectiveness of monetary policy during downturns associated with financial crises. Based on a sample of 24 developed countries, our empirical analysis suggests that monetary policy is less effective following a financial crisis as the monetary transmission mechanism is partially impaired. In particular, our results suggest that the benefits of accommodative monetary policy during a downturn are elusive when the downturn is associated with a financial crisis. In addition, we find that private sector deleveraging during a downturn helps to induce a stronger recovery.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w18072"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Monetary Policy, Liquidity and Growth.</span></a></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> </span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>joint <span class=SpellE>with</span> <em>Philippe <span class=SpellE>Aghion</span></em> and <em>Emmanuel <span class=SpellE>Farhi</span></em><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: In this paper, we use cross-industry, cross-country panel data to test whether industry growth is positively affected by the interaction between the reactivity of real short term interest rates to the business cycle and industry-level measures of financial constraints. Financial constraints are measured, either by the extent to which an industry is prone to being &quot;credit constrained&quot;, or by the extent to which it is prone to being &quot;liquidity constrained&quot;. Our main findings are that: (<span class=SpellE>i</span>) the interaction between credit or liquidity constraints and monetary policy <span class=SpellE><span class=GramE>countercyclicality</span></span><span class=GramE>,</span> has a positive, significant, and robust impact on the average annual rate of labor productivity in the domestic industry; (ii) these interaction effects tend to be more significant in downturns than in upturns.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>You can find an extensively revised version of this paper </span><a href="revision-paper-AFK.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>here</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h3><span class=SpellE><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Economic</span></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> Fluctuations<o:p></o:p></span></h3> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l4 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="paper_BKUZ.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Labor Reallocation and Productivity Dynamics: Financial Causes, Real Consequences.</span></a></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: This paper investigates the causes and consequences of <span class=SpellE>labour</span> reallocation across sectors in advanced economies over the last 35 years. Specifically, the paper makes three contributions. First, using the industry-level decomposition of aggregate output and employment, we construct a simple index measuring the contribution of <span class=SpellE>labour</span> reallocation across sectors to aggregate productivity growth. Second, we show that this index relates significantly and negatively to measures of financial booms: When credit outgrows GDP, <span class=SpellE>labour</span> moves into lower productivity gains sectors. Third, after identifying turning points in real GDP to working population, we show that the <span class=SpellE>labour</span> reallocation index measured in the period prior to the turning point accounts for the path of productivity following the turning point: prior <span class=SpellE>labour</span> reallocation towards lower productivity gains sectors weakens subsequent productivity particularly when a financial crisis hits the economy. These results shed light on the recent secular stagnation debate and provide an alternative interpretation to the hysteresis hypothesis. They also highlight the need to incorporate the effect of credit developments when assessing trend output.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l4 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/content/21/3/439.abstract?etoc">Crises, <span class=SpellE>Volatility</span> and <span class=SpellE>Growth</span>.</a><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: How do volatility and liquidity crises affect growth? When credit is constrained, a bias toward short-term debt can arise in financing long-term investments, generating maturity mismatches and leading potentially to liquidity crises. The frequency of liquidity crises ( abnormal volatility) and the volatility of growth ( normal volatility) are found to have independent negative effects on growth. Financial development however dampens the growth cost of volatility, but only in the case of normal volatility. The growth cost of volatility therefore depends critically on the composition of normal and abnormal volatility, the latter being more costly for growth.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l4 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Industry Developments during Downturns: Re-examining the Hysteresis Hypothesis<o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong>Abstract</strong>: <em>in <span class=SpellE>preparation</span>.</em></p> <h3><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Labor <span class=SpellE>Market</span><o:p></o:p></span></h3> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l6 level1 lfo4;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="risksharing.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Wages, Risk Sharing and Economic Fluctuations.</span></a></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: This paper addresses risk sharing on the labor market. It first provides empirical evidence that, <span class=SpellE><span class=GramE>every thing</span></span><span class=GramE> else equal, real compensation</span> per worker growth is more sensitive to changes in output growth in economies where the volatility of output growth is larger. Secondly the paper shows that this can be accounted for in a framework where firms are confronted to imperfect capital markets. In this case, compensation insurance can have a negative effect on firm borrowing capacity. Then with risk <span class=GramE>averse</span> workers, a trade-off appears for firms between the cost of labor and the intensity of borrowing constraints. Finally when embedded in a general equilibrium model, we show that the optimal labor contract displays fewer insurance, the larger the volatility of shocks on firm production function.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l6 level1 lfo4;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="flex-growth.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Labor Market Flexibility in the Presence of Credit Constraints.</span></a></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: This paper studies how the design of labor contracts affects productivity growth in the presence of credit constraints. Assuming that firms and workers face imperfect capital markets, flexibility in labor contracts is shown to have three effects. It first contributes to relax firm credit constraints. Second it positively influences workers precautionary savings and thereby raises the volume of global savings. Finally it modifies firm incentives to make more risky and hence more productive investments. Based on these three effects, the model brings two results. First the economy can exhibit multiple <span class=SpellE>equilibria</span> when capital market imperfections are large, the high flexibility equilibrium being always Pareto dominated. Second the model predicts that productivity growth should be positively associated with labor market flexibility for relatively low levels of capital market imperfections. We provide empirical evidence at the industry level which supports this last conclusion.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h2><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><a href="finance.html"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Financial Economics</span></a></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> <span lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></span></span></h2> <h3><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Liquidity and Financial Crises<o:p></o:p></span></h3> <ol start=1 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l7 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb09q4a3.htm"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Liquidity, Moral Hazard, and Interbank Market Collapse?</span></a></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> </span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>joint <span class=SpellE>with</span> <em>Edouard <span class=SpellE>Vidon</span></em><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ol> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: This paper proposes a framework to analyze the functioning of the interbank liquidity market and the occurrence of liquidity crises. The model relies on three key assumptions: (<span class=SpellE>i</span>) ex ante investment in liquid assets is not verifiable - it cannot be contracted upon, (ii) banks face moral hazard when confronted with liquidity shocks - unobservable effort can help overcome the shock, and (iii) liquidity shocks are private information - they cannot be diversified away. Under these assumptions, the aggregate volume of capital invested in liquid assets is shown to exert a positive externality on individual decisions to hoard liquid assets. Due to this property, the collapse of the interbank market for liquidity is <span class=GramE>an equilibrium</span>. Moreover, such <span class=GramE>an equilibrium</span> is more likely when the individual probability of the liquidity shock is lower. Banks may therefore provision too few liquid assets compared with the social optimum.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ol start=2 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l7 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="paper-liquidity.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Liquidity Squeeze, Abundant Funding and the Great Moderation.</span></a></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ol> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: This paper studies the choice between building liquidity buffers and <span class=GramE>raising</span> funding ex post, to deal with liquidity shocks. We uncover the possibility of <span class=GramE>a</span> inefficient liquidity squeeze equilibrium. Agents typically choose to build less liquidity buffers when they expect cheap funding. However, when agents hold less liquidity buffers in the aggregate, they can raise less funding because of limited <span class=SpellE>pledgeability</span>, which depresses the funding cost. This incentive structure yields multiple <span class=SpellE>equilibria</span>, one being <span class=GramE>an inefficient</span> liquidity squeeze equilibrium where agents do not build any liquidity buffer. Comparative statics show that this inefficient equilibrium is more likely when the supply for funding is large, and/or when aggregate shocks display low volatility. Last the effectiveness of policy options to restore efficiency is limited because the net gain to intervention decreases with the availability of funding. In other words, policy becomes ineffective when the equilibrium becomes inefficient.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h3><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Financial Development and Financial Sector Growth<o:p></o:p></span></h3> <ol start=1 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l1 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="http://www.bis.org/publ/work381.htm"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Reassessing the Impact of Finance on Growth.</span></a></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> </span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>joint <span class=SpellE>with</span> <em>Stephen Cecchetti</em><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ol> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: This paper investigates how financial development affects aggregate productivity growth. Based on a sample of developed and emerging economies, we first show that the level of financial development is good only up to a point, after which it becomes a drag on growth. Second, focusing on advanced economies, we show that a fast-growing financial sector is detrimental to aggregate productivity growth.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ol start=2 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l1 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="paper-CK.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Why does Financial Sector Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?</span></a></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> joint with <em>Stephen <span class=SpellE>Cecchetti</span></em><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ol> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: In this paper, we examine the negative relationship between the rate of growth of finance and the rate of growth of total factor productivity. We begin by showing that by disproportionately benefiting high-collateral/low-productivity <span class=GramE>projects,</span> an exogenous increase in finance reduces total factor productivity growth. Then in a model with skilled workers and endogenous financial sector growth, we establish the possibility of multiple <span class=SpellE>equilibria</span>. In the equilibrium where skilled <span class=SpellE>labour</span> works in finance, the financial sector grows more quickly at the expense of the real economy. We go on to show that consistent with this theory, financial growth disproportionately harms financially dependent and R-D intensive industries.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h3><span class=SpellE><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Banking</span></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> <span class=SpellE>Regulation</span><o:p></o:p></span></h3> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l3 level1 lfo7;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="paper-AK.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Monetary Policy, Financial Regulations and Industry Growth.</span></a></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> joint with <em>Philippe <span class=SpellE>Aghion</span></em><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: This paper investigates the interplay between cyclical monetary policy and <span class=SpellE>fi</span></span><span class=SpellE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>nancial</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> regulations on industry growth. We lay down a model where </span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>firms are endowed with long-term -productivity enhancing- projects whose returns are not fully <span class=SpellE>pledgeable</span> and subject to aggregate productivity shocks. In this model, lower <span class=SpellE>pledgeability</span> <span class=SpellE>fi</span></span><span class=SpellE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>rms</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> grow disproportionately faster when real interest rates are more countercyclical or when credit provision is more countercyclical. Moreover, the growth <span class=SpellE>e<span class=GramE>ect</span></span> of countercyclical interest rates is reduced when the <span class=SpellE>fi</span></span><span class=SpellE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>nancial</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> sector is more constrained in its ability to provide credit. The paper then tests these predictions using cross-country, cross-industry OECD data over the period 1999-2005.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h2><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><a href="finance.html">International <span class=SpellE>Macroeconomics</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></h2> <h3><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>International Capital <span class=SpellE>Flows</span><o:p></o:p></span></h3> <ol start=1 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l5 level1 lfo8;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="Growth%20and%20FC.pdf"><span class=SpellE>Growth</span> and <span class=SpellE>Foreign</span> Capital.</a><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ol> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: Recent empirical work has shown that over the long run, current account <span class=SpellE>defi</span></span><span class=SpellE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>cits</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> are associated with lower growth, especially in developing countries. This paper shows that this can hold in an economy where (<span class=SpellE>i</span>) entrepreneurs of different productivities can raise capital from domestic and foreign financiers and (ii) domestic financiers have a comparative advantage in financing low productivity entrepreneurs. In this framework, low productivity entrepreneurs can outbid higher productivity entrepreneurs on the domestic capital market. When this happens, the economy attracts more capital from abroad but suffers capital misallocation and low total factor productivity as a large part of domestic investment goes to low productivity projects. Introducing workers into the model and allowing for endogenous savings, we show that if the labor share in value added is sufficiently large, aggregate savings and investment are typically lower with larger foreign capital inflows. Finally the paper contrasts financial openness and financial autarky highlighting that the trade-off lies between an enhanced borrowing ability on the one hand and potential capital misallocation as well as reduced savings on the other hand.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h3><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>International Trade<o:p></o:p></span></h3> <ol start=1 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l2 level1 lfo9;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="http://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/ner195.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Some Evidence on the Globalization-Inflation Nexus.</span></a></span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> </span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>joint <span class=SpellE>with</span> <em>Sophie Guilloux</em><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ol> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: This paper aims at evaluating the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. We first show that the impact of commodity import price inflation on CPI inflation depends on the volume of commodity imports while the impact of non-commodity import price inflation is independent of the volume of non-commodity imports. Second, focusing on the role of intra-industry trade, we provide preliminary evidence that this variable can account (<span class=SpellE>i</span>) for the low pass-through of import price to consumer price and (ii) for the flattening of the Phillips curve, i.e. the lower sensitivity of inflation to the output gap.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ol start=2 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l2 level1 lfo9;tab-stops:list 36.0pt'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><a href="http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1109e.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>The Trade Balance and the Real Exchange Rate.</span></a></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ol> <p style='margin-left:36.0pt'><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Abstract</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>: <span class=SpellE>Globalisation</span> has affected the relationship between the trade balance and the real exchange rate in two ways. On the one hand, the growth of trade taking place within industries makes the trade balance more sensitive to real exchange movements. On the other hand, a higher degree of vertical <span class=SpellE>specialisation</span> and more global supply chains act to reduce this sensitivity. The relative importance of these two effects varies across countries. According to the estimates presented in this article, changes in the real exchange rate could play a larger role in curbing the US trade deficit than in reducing the Chinese trade surplus. This confirms that real exchange rate adjustment is only part of the solution for global rebalancing, and needs to be accompanied by other policy actions.<o:p></o:p></span></p> </div> </body> </html>